O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs Works

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Patterns of Compliance and Noncompliance During Probation: Identifying Pathways to Probation Revocation
(2022) Lowder, Evan; Northcutt Bohmert, Miriam; Diaz, Carmen; Ying, Michelle; Grommon, Eric; Hatfield, Troy
Prior research has explored factors associated with probation outcomes, but few studies have examined pathways of noncompliance leading to probation failure. We conducted social sequence analysis to identify trajectories of compliance and noncompliance in a sample of 4,389 probationers in Monroe County, Indiana. Our findings showed full compliance was the most common probation trajectory and a single failure to appear (FTA) the most common pattern of noncompliance. In addition to a new offense during probation, repeated patterns of FTA and substance use noncompliance were associated with higher revocation rates. Recurrent patterns of technical violations, particularly for substance use, may function as an important pathway to revocation. Supervision strategies that intervene to address recurrent noncompliance may help agencies reduce revocation rates.
A rapid review of literature on factors associated with adult probation revocations
(Taylor & Francis, 2022) Diaz, Carmen L.; Rising, Staci; Grommon, Eric; Northcutt Bohmert, Miriam; Lowder, Evan Marie
Criminal justice stakeholders have increasingly relied on probation supervision as an alternative to incarceration and yet, probation revocations often result in incarceration. As such, increased understanding of the mechanisms behind revocations and strategies to reduce them is critical. We conduct a rapid review of the literature on factors associated with probation revocations. Specifically, we review 50 articles on how probation officer behavior, officer-client relationships, caseload size, supervision intensity, monetary sanctions, probation client characteristics, or programming and services are associated with probation revocations. Though the literature is limited, and findings are mixed, the most consistent findings indicate that officer-client relationships involving trust, support, respect, and empathy as well as reduced caseload sizes and cognitive behavioral therapy programs are associated with probation success while intensive supervision programs; greater monetary sanctions and nonpayment of those sanctions; and being Black and less educated are associated with poorer supervision outcomes. Implications for future research, policy, and practice are discussed.
Expanding the political market framework to explain executive decision-making during the COVID-19 crisis
(ASPA, 2023-09) Curley, Cali; Federman, Peter Stanley; Shen, Ruowen; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
The traditional political market framework (PMF) argues that elected officials respond to policy demands by adopting policy that furthers their goal of reelection. However, an emerging crisis can make this approach to decision-making challenging as the immediacy of response, the needs of the public, and technical expertise may conflict with reelection goals. This conflict can encourage elected officials to engage in blame avoidance by delegating policy-making powers to the bureaucracy. Utilizing a mixed methods approach to analyze state-level governor responses to COVID-19, this paper expands the PMF by capturing the influence of bureaucratic demands on elected official decisions to delegate or transfer power to the bureaucracy. We find evidence that bureaucratic expertise, under the right set of circumstances, influences policymaker decisions to delegate policymaking power. Lastly, we advocate for a renewed focus on democratic principles and the consequences of delegation for transparency, accountability, and social equity. In understanding the specific dynamics at play when bureaucrats and executives work to develop policy in crisis, practitioners may gain a better understanding of how to navigate difficult decisions. The specific executive orders across states are not particularly well-known, and providing evidence of the steps other states took to combat the crisis may prove useful to practitioners in the emergency management space. If practitioners have a more complete understanding of why policy is made and by what mechanisms, they may apply a focus on implementation strategies that are effective and relevant.
Conservation payments and perceptions of equity: Experimental evidence from Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania
(Elsevier, 2023) Cook, Nathan J.; Grillos, Tara; Andersson, Krister P.; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
While monetary incentives may be a promising tool for encouraging tropical forest conservation in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the equity implications of such incentives are drawing scrutiny. Furthermore, little is known about how program design shapes perceptions of fairness and equity among program participants, and it remains unclear whether devolving the decision power over the distribution of payments to local leaders helps or harms local perceptions of equity. We implemented a ‘lab-in-the-field’ experiment with 448 participants in rural villages in Indonesia, Peru, and Tanzania, framed around two versions of a collective payments for ecosystem services (PES) program. Participants perceived the program as less equitable when the collective payment was distributed according to the discretion of a locally chosen leader, compared to when the payment was distributed perfectly equally by design. The negative effect is only seen among participants who were given a low share of the payment, which suggests that it is not the involvement of a leader per se that leads to lower perceptions of equity, but the inegalitarian distribution of the payment that sometimes occurs when a leader has the discretion to choose how the payment is distributed. The results highlight the importance of designing conservation incentive programs that give opportunities for local involvement while still encouraging equitable local decisions.
Pause But Not Panic: Exploring COVID-19 as a Critical Incident for Nonprofit Workers
(Sage, 2023-01-16) Kuenzi, Kerry; Stewart, Amanda J.; Walk, Marlene; O'Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Critical incidents often have significant impacts on workers, sometimes causing disruptions to career pathways and a re-evaluation of past career decisions. This article seeks to explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on nonprofit workers and their commitment to the sector using a critical incidents lens. In-depth interviews with nonprofit workers provided insights on the pandemic’s impact on workers’ personal and professional lives and how they made sense of these. Changes to work including flexibility and work-from-home options were often viewed positively, yet workers expressed a loss of connection with their colleagues, mental health and well-being challenges, as well as challenges to adapt to new ways of working. In making sense of these changes, commitment to the sector was mostly sustained; however, respondents also noted a shift in priorities and expressed a desire for better balance between their personal and professional lives.
Old Is New: Making Innovation Work for Everyone
(CSIS, 2022-09-07) Guevara, Tom; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Light-duty vehicle fleet electrification in the United States and its effects on global agricultural markets
(Elsevier, 2022-10) Dumortier, Jerome; Elobeid, Amani; Carriquiry, Miguel; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet in the United States (U.S.) decreases the long-term demand for maize ethanol. This analysis assesses the consequences of accelerated penetration of electric vehicles into the U.S. LDV fleet on global food production, prices, land-use, and carbon emissions. Population and income growth are framed around Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP). The scenarios progressively increase the 2050 sales share of electric LDVs to 100%. The results indicate a maximum price decline of 9.5% for maize and a significant increase in U.S. maize exports. The fleet electrification also leads to a decline in global cropland compared to the baseline by up to 4.4 million hectares at the end of the projection period. Mean GHG reductions in the 100% LDV sales scenario range from 39.4% to 52.0% of 2019 emissions from gasoline LDVs depending on the SSP. Thus, transportation policies supporting additional electric vehicles reduce food prices and carbon emissions.
Interactions Between U.S. Vehicle Electrification, Climate Change, and Global Agricultural Markets
(Springer, 2023-01) Dumortier, Jerome; Carriquiry, Miguel; Elobeid, Amani; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Future agricultural production is influenced by climate change and changes in policies and behavior, such as the proliferation of battery electric vehicles (BEV). For the United States (U.S.), the influence of the latter is more pronounced due to the size of the U.S. biofuel industry. Using a global agricultural trade model and different climate change pathways until 2050, we show that global commodity price increases triggered by declining yields due to climate change are dampened by an accelerated increase of U.S. BEV sales, which decrease maize ethanol demand. Accelerated BEV sales also reduce cropland requirements compared to baseline electrification scenarios. The accelerated market share of BEVs also (1) lowers the decrease in caloric intake for maize, rice, and wheat which has important food security implications in the presence of climate change and (2) changes trade relationships. The implications of those findings are that policy discussions surrounding policies to promote BEVs should include lower commodity prices and increased food security that dampen some of the negative effects of climate change. Those are additional benefits besides the direct emissions reduction (assuming low-or no-carbon electricity production) from reducing vehicles with internal combustion engines.
Identity, experience, and threat: Assessing key correlates of firearm ownership and related behaviors in a representative sample of five US States
(Elsevier, 2023) Semenza, Daniel C.; Magee, Lauren A.; Anestis, Michael D.; Buggs, Shani A.L.
The purpose of this study was to examine psychosocial, experiential, and demographic correlates of firearm ownership, carrying, and storage methods. We used a representative survey of 3,510 people living in five US states (Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Texas) conducted in 2022. Individuals provided information on past experiences with firearms, perceptions of threat and neighborhood safety, discrimination, and tolerance of uncertainty alongside demographic items. The analysis was conducted in November 2022. Past experiences with firearms and prior victimization are associated with increased firearm ownership and carrying practices. Threat sensitivity is associated with owning more guns while poorer perceptions of neighborhood safety correspond with owning fewer guns but greater risk for unsafe storage practices like storing a loaded gun in a closet or drawer. Intolerance of uncertainty is associated with owning fewer guns and lower risk for carrying outside of the home but greater risk for unsafe storage. Prior experience of discrimination is associated with risk for carrying firearms outside of the home. Demographic characteristics related to sex, rurality, military service, and political conservatism predict risky firearm-related behaviors related to firearm ownership, carrying frequency, and unsecure storage. Taken together, we find firearm ownership and risky firearm behaviors (e.g. carrying, unsafe storage) are more prominent among groups such as politically conservative males living in rural areas while also being influenced by threatening experiences, uncertainty, and perceptions of safety.
Identifying Nonfatal Firearm Assault Incidents through Linking Police Data and Clinical Records: Cohort Study in Indianapolis, Indiana, 2007 – 2016
(Elsevier, 2021) Magee, Lauren A.; Ranney, Megan L.; Fortenberry, J. Dennis; Rosenman, Marc; Gharbi, Sami; Wiehe, Sarah E.; School of Public and Environmental Affairs
Nonfatal firearm assault incidents are more prevalent than gun homicides, however, little is understood about nonfatal firearm assault incidents due to a lack of accurate data in the United States. This is a descriptive study of all nonfatal firearm assault incidents identified through police and clinical records from 2007 to 2016 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Records were linked at the incident level to demonstrate the overlap and non-overlap of nonfatal firearm assault incidents in police and clinical records and describe differences in demographic characteristics of the victims. Incidents were matched within a 24-h time window of the recorded date of the police incident. Data were analyzed in fall 2020. There were 3797 nonfatal firearm assault incidents identified in police reports and 3131 clinical encounters with an ICD 9/10 diagnosis-based nonfatal firearm-related injury. 62% (n = 2366) of nonfatal firearm assault incidents matched within 24 h to a clinical encounter, 81% (n = 1905) had a firearm related ICD code: 40% (n = 947) were coded as a firearm-related assault, 32% (n = 754) were coded as a firearm-related accident; and 8.6% (n = 198) were coded as undetermined, self-inflicted or law enforcement firearm-related. The other 20% (n = 461) did not have an ICD firearm related diagnosis code. Results indicate most nonfatal firearm assault incidents overlap between police and clinical records systems, however, discrepancies between the systems exist. These findings also demonstrate an undercounting of nonfatal firearm assault incidents when relying on clinical data systems alone and more efforts are needed to link administrative police and clinical data in the study of nonfatal firearm assaults.

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