How to Think about the Pace of Substitution of Open Access Academic Journals for Traditional Subscription Journals

Date
2010-01-04T15:47:13Z
Language
American English
Embargo Lift Date
Department
Committee Members
Degree
Degree Year
Department
Grantor
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Found At
Abstract

As librarians, academic authors and editors, publishers, and others interested in scholarly communication consider the future, one of the pressing questions is: How fast will open access journals replace traditional subscription journals? It is clear that there are more open access journals now than a few years ago and that open access journals have become an important vehicle for some scholarly communication, but how long will we have to wait for this vehicle to become dominant?

This paper will consider this question and use a simple model to explore it.

The conclusion is that between 2018 and 2019 open access journals are likely to comprise 50% of all academic journals and should be approaching 90% of all academic journals by 2022.

While the data used in the study has some limitations and the methods are somewhat crude, I believe the conclusions are generally sound. I would invite others to refine the data and the methodology.

Description
item.page.description.tableofcontents
item.page.relation.haspart
Cite As
ISSN
Publisher
Series/Report
Sponsorship
Major
Extent
Identifier
Relation
Journal
Rights
Source
Alternative Title
Type
Working Paper
Number
Volume
Conference Dates
Conference Host
Conference Location
Conference Name
Conference Panel
Conference Secretariat Location
Version
Full Text Available at
This item is under embargo {{howLong}}