Exploratory Analysis of Dengue Fever Niche Variables within the Río Magdalena Watershed

Abstract

Previous research on Dengue Fever have involved laboratory tests or study areas with less diverse temperature and elevation ranges than is found in Colombia; therefore, preliminary research was needed to identify location specific attributes of Dengue Fever transmission. Environmental variables derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellites were combined with population variables to be statistically compared against reported cases of Dengue Fever in the Río Magdalena watershed, Colombia. Three-factor analysis models were investigated to analyze variable patterns, including a population, population density, and empirical Bayesian estimation model. Results identified varying levels of Dengue Fever transmission risk, and environmental characteristics which support, and advance, the research literature. Multiple temperature metrics, elevation, and vegetation composition were among the more contributory variables found to identify future potential outbreak locations.